Nepal’s skies are about to change. Meteorologists expect rain and snowfall across the country from Kartik 11 to 15, which falls between October 28 and November 1, 2026. Farmers, trekkers, and highway travelers have all received warnings. This report covers what forecasters are saying, which regions face the highest risk, and how to prepare.
This is a developing story. Forecasts may shift as the weather system moves closer. So, check official bulletins before any outdoor plans.
What Is Causing the Weather Change?
The trigger is a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. According to the Weather Forecasting Division, it developed over the east-central and adjoining southeastern parts of the bay. The system could influence Nepal’s weather from late October into early November.
The India Meteorological Department said the system was strengthening. It forecast an intensification into a depression, then a deep depression, before it could become a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) issued a special post-monsoon weather bulletin on Friday. It warned that the system could affect Nepal from October 28 to November 1.
A second factor adds to the concern. Meteorologist Binod Pokharel noted that a westerly weather system is also expected to become active. When the two systems meet, heavy rainfall becomes more likely.
The Dates: Kartik 11 to 15
Sources vary slightly on timing, which is normal for a developing system. The core window looks like this:
- Kartik 11–12 (around October 27–28): The system is expected to reach Nepal. Clouds may begin building a day or two earlier.
- Thursday night to Friday night: Pokharel flagged this stretch as the period of greatest risk.
- Kartik 12–15 (through November 1): Heavy rainfall is possible in various parts of the country.
The Weather Forecasting Division said conditions would stay generally stable for the next few days. However, the chance of rain and snowfall rises from Wednesday through Sunday.
Which Regions Are Most Affected?
According to DHM’s outlook, rainfall is possible in both the hills and the Terai. Snowfall is expected in the mountains.
Rain Across the Country
Moderate rain is possible in parts of Koshi, Madhesh, Bagmati, Gandaki, and Lumbini provinces. Some areas of Sudurpaschim Province could also see rain. A few places in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki may receive heavy rain. Isolated parts of Lumbini could see the same.
Heavy Rain Concerns in Bagmati
Pokharel warned that several areas of Bagmati Province could receive more than 150 millimeters of rain over four days. Reports also mention that dozens of districts face elevated risk. Because these figures come from a single forecaster’s analysis, treat them as a warning, not a certainty.
Snowfall in the Mountains
Moderate snowfall is likely in several mountain areas of Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces. Some locations could see heavy snowfall. One or two places may receive very heavy snowfall. Mountain areas of Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim may also see snow.
Advice for Farmers
The timing is difficult for agriculture. Late October is harvest season, and paddy is still ripening in many fields.
Meteorologists have urged farmers to delay or plan their harvest carefully. Pokharel advised farmers to protect ripening paddy still standing in fields. He also urged them to cover harvested crops that are laid out to dry. Climate expert Ujjwal Upadhyay gave a slightly different emphasis, recommending that farmers bring in their crops before the rain arrives.
These two pieces of advice do not conflict. The goal is the same: keep grain from getting soaked. Farmers should follow local forecasts and decide based on how close the rain is to their area.
Practical Steps for Farmers
- Harvest only what you can dry and store before the rain begins.
- Cover cut crops with tarpaulin or move them under shelter.
- Check drainage around fields to avoid waterlogging.
- Monitor forecasts daily, since timing may shift.
Advice for Trekkers
Trekkers face the most serious risk. Meteorologists have advised avoiding Himalayan and hilly regions during this window. Upadhyay recommended suspending trekking in the high Himalayas for the period.
Why This Warning Is Serious
Autumn is peak trekking season. Many people are already on popular routes like Annapurna, Manaslu, and Everest. Sudden snowfall can close passes, hide trails, and strand groups.
Nepal has painful history here. In October 2014, a snowstorm struck central Nepal and killed at least 43 people, including at least 21 trekkers. At the time, no system existed to warn trekkers about weather along their route. Authorities later proposed trekker registries, checkpoints, and mandatory guides.
More recently, heavy snowfall in late October 2025 affected trekkers in the Manaslu and Everest regions. Some groups stalled below the Larke Pass.
What Trekkers Should Do
- Check the DHM forecast daily and before every high-altitude day.
- Talk to your guide and agency about turning back or waiting.
- Avoid crossing high passes during or right after snowfall.
- Carry extra food, warm layers, and a charged phone.
- Share your route and schedule with someone at home.
- Do not push on to keep to a schedule. Delays are far safer than risks.
Advice for Highway Travelers
Rain brings landslides, slippery roads, and low visibility. Nepal’s mountain highways are especially vulnerable.
According to the In-Depth Story report, travelers have been told to exercise caution on the Prithvi Highway and BP Highway because of possible weather-related risks. Both routes pass through steep terrain and river corridors. Heavy rain can trigger rockfalls and washouts.
Highway Safety Tips
- Avoid night driving on mountain highways during heavy rain.
- Check road status with local authorities before long trips.
- Allow extra time and expect delays from landslide clearing.
- Keep fuel, water, and snacks in the vehicle.
- Slow down on curves, where wet surfaces reduce traction.
- Postpone non-essential travel if heavy rain is forecast along your route.
What Visitors and Residents in Kathmandu Should Expect
Kathmandu Valley is likely to see cloud cover and periods of rain, with cooler temperatures. Outdoor sightseeing and festival plans may need flexibility. Pack a light rain jacket and warm layers. Mornings and evenings will feel colder than usual.
If you are heading to the hills for a day trip, such as Nagarkot or Dhulikhel, check conditions first. Mist and rain can hide the mountain views you came for.
How to Stay Informed
Weather in the Himalayas changes quickly. Official sources are the safest guide.
- The Weather Forecasting Division of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology issues daily bulletins and warnings.
- Local radio, newspapers, and provincial authorities share district-level alerts.
- Trekking agencies and teahouse owners often receive updates early.
Further details on exact locations and rainfall intensity will depend on forecasts issued closer to the event, according to the Weather Forecasting Division.
Final Thoughts
Rain and snowfall in Nepal during Kartik 11 to 15 could affect farming, trekking, and road travel across much of the country. The system is still developing, so details may change. The advice from forecasters is consistent: protect crops, delay high-altitude treks, and drive carefully on mountain highways. A short delay costs very little. A bad decision in a snowstorm can cost far more. Stay alert, follow official updates, and plan with flexibility.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will rain and snowfall begin in Nepal?
Forecasters expect the weather system to affect Nepal from around Kartik 11 (October 28) through Kartik 15 (November 1), with the highest risk during the middle of this window.
Which regions will get snowfall?
Mountain areas of Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces are most likely to see snow. Higher parts of Lumbini, Karnali, and Sudurpaschim may also receive some.
Should trekkers avoid the Himalayas during this period?
Yes. Meteorologists have advised avoiding Himalayan and hilly regions, and one expert recommended suspending high-altitude trekking during this window.
What should farmers do before the rain?
Protect standing paddy, cover harvested crops that are drying, or bring crops in before the rain, depending on how close the weather is to your area.
Which highways need extra caution?
Travelers have been warned to be careful on the Prithvi Highway and BP Highway because of possible landslides, slippery roads, and low visibility.
Where can I find the latest official forecast?
Check the Weather Forecasting Division of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, along with local news and provincial authorities.
